Nearly 40 percent of peace agreements since 1975 have collapsed within five years of their inception. Whether war breaks out again or spoilers set back the process, many agreements simply don’t last long after they’ve been signed.
The unfortunate reality is evident today across the globe. Negotiations have broken down in Sudan, Israel and Palestine, Ukraine, and other places trapped in conflict. Policymakers across the globe are discovering that convincing combatants to put down their arms and come to the negotiation table often seems impossible. Crafting peace agreements that last is harder still.
So, what can be done?
At this year’s Pearson Global Forum, attendees gathered in an attempt to find answers. First launched in 2018, the forum brings together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to investigate a different topic surrounding the root causes of conflict and paths to peace. This year’s event, held Oct. 18 at the David Rubenstein Forum, focused singularly on negotiation and agreement in peace processes—aiming to bridge the critical gap between academic research and policymaking.
“The work of the Pearson Institute and this Global Forum really go to the heart of trying to understand how we achieve peace, resolve conflict and address great suffering in the world in the most rigorous way,” said Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, dean and the Sydney Stein Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, during his opening remarks. “It’s thrilling to have convened such a distinguished group of experts – academics and practitioners alike – to explore these kinds of thorny questions.”
Throughout the daylong event, speakers that included world leaders drew lessons from successful agreements and what challenges negotiators faced on the road to peace. In Colombia, the government's negotiations with the country’s largest guerilla group, known as the FARC, succeeded in 2016 even though peace processes there had failed to make real progress for more than 50 years. And, what was once deemed an impossibly intractable conflict in Northern Ireland saw a peace process in 1998, with women at the frontlines of the negotiating table and most militia groups ultimately defused in the years after.
Expert panelists also unpacked situations in which armed conflict stopped peace negotiations in their tracks. In Sudan, civilian-led negotiations were upended by fractured military groups, which led to civil war and acts of genocide in Darfur.
While in a higher profile conflict, Israel’s war in Gaza rages on, and American views on it remain polarized, according to a recent Pearson/NORC poll released in conjunction with the Forum. About three in four Americans say Hamas, Israel and Iran are responsible for the war’s continuation, while about half say the United States is responsible.
Former Haitian Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis put the fundamental challenge of resolving the unrest and violence in her country this way. “To have peace, we need security” from weapons imports that prop up both state and non-state actors, she said. “As long as this nourishes the gang violence, it is going to continue, and negotiation is going to be extremely difficult.”
For Nobel Prize-winning scholar James A. Robinson, the institute director of The Pearson Institute, building the space to discuss these issues at has been fulfilling—and an important part of his legacy.
“I write a lot about the challenges of building institutions that actually serve the interests of society rather than some narrow, personal interest,” Robinson said. “If we can shed some light on that and bring some wisdom to the table, then what could be more fulfilling than that?”
The Forum’s agenda resonated with students, as well. While working this summer with Fambul Tok, an organization focused on peace and recovery in the wake of Sierra Leone's civil war, Harris student Mario Venegas Wignall learned that localized approaches to reconciliation are crucial. Expanding peacebuilding engagement from the capital to the countryside meant building a distinctive methodology based on Sierra Leonean culture and contexts in order for the country to move forward.
“Sometimes, big international organizations focus on building truth reconciliation committees, which of course play an important role, but neglect to focus on what is right in front of them, which is how do these people make peace here, right here where they live? Several of the Forum’s speakers emphasized that peace can only be built based on the reality and context of each place,” he said. “Hearing perspective on this – and so many other topics – is what made the Forum such an amazing learning opportunity for everyone who attended.”
Learn more and watch video recordings from the event at the Pearson Institute’s YouTube page.
—Adapted from a story that was first published on the Harris School of Public Policy website
—Prof. Jacqueline Stewart
